The one major uncertainty in these growth projections continues to be the United States. Despite being the most lucrative cannabis market in the world, the U.S. federal government has remained firm on its classification of marijuana as a Schedule I substance. This classification means marijuana is on par with heroin and LSD as being entirely illegal, prone to abuse, and isn’t recognized as having any medical benefits.
In spite of being labeled a Schedule I drug, it hasn’t stopped 33 states from legalizing medical marijuana since 1996, 11 states of which have also legalized adult-use consumption. These 33 states are currently running circles around Canada, the only fully legal industrialized country in the world, in terms of sales, thanks in part of the federal government taking a hands-off approach to regulation.
Nevertheless, there are clearly defined consequences to Congress holding pat on cannabis as a Schedule I substance.
As an example, profitable businesses that operate in the U.S. marijuana space are subjected to Section 280E of the tax code, which was implemented in the early 1980s to keep drug smugglers from writing off “business expenses” on their taxes. In layman’s terms, marijuana companies aren’t able to take any deductions on their federal income taxes, save for cost of goods sold. If profitable, this can mean paying an effective tax rate of 70% to 90%, which leaves little income left over for reinvestment and hiring.
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