In 2023, there are eight adult-use cannabis states that are projected to eclipse the $1-billion benchmark in total retail sales from their respective markets. But here’s the kicker: That’s one fewer than in 2021.
While dispensary sales in mature markets like California, Colorado and Washington remain comfortably in the 10-figure range this year despite falling trends, shrinking numbers in Oregon and Nevada means the billion-dollar ranks are now a little less crowded.
Missouri, which Cannabis Business Times projects to surpass $1.3 billion in combined adult-use and medical sales this year, based on monthly data from the state’s Department of Health and Senior Services, will be the lone newcomer.
But the industry yardstick shouldn’t only be used to measure the behemoths in the U.S. cannabis space. Notably, nine states—among the 20 that have implemented commercial adult-use cannabis sales—have launched their programs since the beginning of 2022.
These nine emerging markets came about in 18 months. Meanwhile, it took seven years for the first 11 adult-use programs to get going.
As a result of the newcomers, cannabis sales nationwide are projected to grow 12 percent by the end of 2023, reaching $29.6 billion, according to market intelligence provider BDSA. Notably, the 12 largest adult-use markets will account for more than two-thirds of that 2023 total.
Michigan
Among the billion-dollar cannabis markets, Michigan remains an outlier with respect to its year-over-year growth.
Based on sales figures through the first seven months of the year, Michigan retailers are projected to record more than $2.9 billion in adult-use and medical cannabis in 2023, representing a 27 percent increased from last year, according to data from the state’s Cannabis Regulatory Agency.
And this $2.9-billion projection is a conservative estimate following recent upward sales trends in June ($260.8 million) and July ($276.7 million)—much greater than the 2023 monthly average of $243.3 million. Considering recent months, the second half of Michigan’s year will likely lead to more than $3 billion in sales for 2023.
Overall, cannabis demand in Michigan is the highest among adult-use states in the nation with an average monthly spend of $23.42 per capita in 2023, more than three times that of California, according to a CBT market analysis.
Here, CBT provides projections for the other top-performing retail markets in 2023: